Incorrect
prediction 
Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray
December 22, 2005
As we expected, the majority of Apple specialists we spoke with are expecting December 2005 to be up from December 2004. Specifically, 60% of resellers expect this year be stronger than last and half of the 60% indicated that this year will be significantly better than last.
We have gotten a lot of questions regarding the potential for Apple customers to slow down Mac buying ahead of next year's Intel transition. We asked the 20 Apple resellers if they are seeing evidence of this trend. 60% of value added resellers in our sample said they have seen a few customers indicating that they intend to wait until next year to see what Apple releases, but in all cases this was a small group of customers.
40% of resellers said that they have at least one size/color of all varieties of iPod. 45% indicated that they have patchy supply, which in most cases meant that they were missing the 30GB and 60GB iPod."
December 13, 2005
Apple's 30GB iPod provides the lowest cost per gigabyte at $10, followed by Creative's Zen Vision:M at $11. It should be noted though that the Zen Vision:M has a few more features (i.e., personal organizer, recorder, more song storage, more hours of video, and an FM tuner) than the iPod.
Will Creative be able to pack these features into a 30GB device and price it below an iPod? The answer is no. We believe that non-iPod devices must compete on price to gain adoption, but Apple has such massive relative shipment volume with the iPod that other MP3 player manufacturers are not able to replicate the economies of scale achieved by Apple. We believe this reality will allow Apple to sell iPods at the lowest prices in the market, thus retaining the iPod's pole position for years."
November 28, 2005
Based on limited iPod availability (during times of peak demand) outside of Apple retail stores and apple.com, we continue to believe that some Street estimates for iPod unit shipments for the December quarter are too high. We are currently modeling for total iPod shipments of 9 million. While we do believe slight upside to our estimate is achievable, we do not expect Apple will be able to ship the number of units that are already anticipated in some Street models.
While 2005 was clearly a year heavy in iPod innovation at Apple, we do not expect a slowdown in new/updated iPods in 2006. In addition to new and updated iPods, 2006 will be a significant year for the Mac line. The incorporation of Intel and introduction of new form factors will both likely lead to the launch of several new/updated Macs in 2006, more changes to the Mac lineup than were seen in 2005."
October 6, 2005
We believe that it is most likely that Apple will launch either a video iPod or a smaller form factor high capacity (>10GB) iPod at next Wednesday's 'One More Thing...' event. "
Apple
releases the 5G iPod with video playback capabilities.
June 6, 2005
Prior to the Intel transition announcement:
There are clearly risks to transitioning to a different processor after more than a decade on the IBM platform. The most visible risk is that there could be some push back in the developer community, as the move would require programmers to rewrite some applications."
On the other hand:
Apple has encountered many instances in which the supply of IBM PowerPC processors has been inconsistent and resulted in inventory constraint issues for Macs. Over time, we believe an Intel-based Mac would lead to a larger developer community, potentially providing for greater breadth of applications for the Mac."
May 11, 2005
Regarding Yahoo's recently announced music download service:
We do not anticipate the market share of the iPod will be meaningfully impacted by the emergence of Yahoo! and other music subscription services. We have seen over the last 2 years that the success of online music services is driven by compatible devices. In other words, the risk to Apple is a killer new MP3 player, not a new online music service."
April 14, 2005
We believe the halo effect is the primary driver of upside to Mac units. It appears that this phenomenon has begun to take effect.
iPod unit sales were 5.3 million for the quarter, we had been modeling for 3.8 million total units.
Apple is gaining share with both Mac and iPod and we expect these market-share gains will continue. Apple has given conservative guidance in the last three quarters.
We estimate total shuffle units for the March quarter were approximately 1.8m, compared to our 1.0m estimate.
We estimate total Mac mini units sold in the March quarter were 138k vs. our estimate of 50k. We believe the Mac mini is benefiting from iPod carry-over.
Indirectly, we expect iPod to continue to be a foundation for growth in other parts of Apple's business.
Our confidence in iPod-to-Mac carryover is based on our survey of 200 iPod users."
April 11, 2005
While clearly a critical piece of the overall picture, due to iPod shuffle supply inconsistencies in the quarter, we believe it is prudent to focus on overall March quarter results and June guidance."
Regarding strong demand for the iMac, Powerbook, Mac mini, and various iPods:
This was the most positive we have heard the channel in the last 3 quarters, with 35% expecting March quarter above
plan. Any complaints were primarily related to lack of supply of Mac mini and iPod shuffle and weak sales of Power Mac.Indirectly, we expect iPod to be a foundation for growth in other parts of Apple's business. We expect that by the end of 2005 more than 30 million iPods will have shipped, providing Apple with a greater scope of awareness for various products."
March 31, 2005
Over the last several weeks, the estimated time to ship every Apple product either remained the same or was reduced except for the iPod U2. Though it might be a stretch, the increase in estimated days to ship the iPod U2 (same business day to 1-2 days) could be related to the strong U2 Vertigo 2005 Concert Tour ticket sales."
4 of the top 10 best selling computers at Amazon.com are Apple computers:
We believe this shows that Apple continues to hold a significant computer market presence."
8 of the top 10 best selling MP3 players at Amazon.com were iPods:
This is the first time we have examined the iPod's popularity on Amazon.com, but we believe it shows that Apple continues to be the dominant producer of portable MP3 players."
The number 1 Top Selling Software is the unreleased OS X 10.4 Tiger:
Though it is hard to determine how the rank translates to revenue, it is safe to say that the success of the Tiger pre-order was a surprise to us, given that it is outselling the seasonally strong TurboTax software."
March 16, 2005
It is difficult to anticipate the pace at which Apple can gain share in the personal computer market. While clearly Apple's domination in digital music is a critical piece to the story, we do not believe that iPod is the only potential growth avenue for the company. In our view, 500k more or less iPods in any given quarter will be inconsequential in the context of Apple's long-term overall business. We believe that carry-over to other segments of Apple's business will be material."
February 1, 2005
We believe initial demand for the Mac mini and the iPod shuffle has exceeded what Apple had been expecting. The majority of stores have no idea when they will receive product. Those stores that do have an indication of when they will receive product suggested that limited quantities of the Mac mini and iPod shuffle will be in stock within 2 weeks."
December 28, 2004
Piper Jaffray believes Apple will upgrade the iPod mini capacity from 4GB to 5GB at the Macworld Expo.
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